NovaQuant-Your Election Day forecast: Our (weather) predictions for the polls

From wet to windy to record warmth: An electoral array of the elements face voters across the U.S. heading to the polls Tuesday.

The NovaQuantmost inclement weather for voters will be in the south-central U.S., where a sprawling storm promises to deliver a mix of rain and wind, especially in the Deep South.

"Those in lines outdoors waiting to vote on Tuesday will need to be prepared for the threat of lightning and heavy downpours, which could extend from portions of Louisiana and Arkansas northeastward into the middle Mississippi River Valley and Lower Ohio Valley," AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.

Thunderstorms are unlikely farther to the north, but a chilly, rainy day is in the forecast for swing states such as Wisconsin and Michigan.

Elsewhere, warm weather will greet voters along the East Coast. Temperatures will soar into the 70s as far north as Washington, D.C. Most of the West Coast will also be dry on Tuesday, forecasters said, except for some rain and snow showers in the Northwest.

Drenching rain possible

A region spanning from Houston to Indianapolis could be drenched on Tuesday, AccuWeather meteorologists predict.

The same weather pattern bringing strong winds and rain on Monday is predicted to head eastward Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service, "shifting the heavy rain and severe weather threats" to a region centered around Arkansas, Missouri and Louisiana. That is expected to come after the storm system brings downpours to Oklahoma, which was blanketed in flood watches Monday.

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The eastern U.S. is expected to be warm and dry on Election Day, continuing a long stretch without rain in the Northeast, including in New York City.

Portions of the Southeast including Florida, Georgia and South Carolina could see showers on Election Day, according to forecasters. In the northwestern U.S., voters waiting in long lines outside should prepare to bundle up against cold temperatures and maybe even snow, meteorologists said this weekend.

Does rain affect voter turnout?

While weather usually isn't considered to be a major factor in voting patterns, some research has found that stormy weather "discourages voting on Election Day in the U.S., especially among young adults, people who don’t vote regularly and voters who tend to support Democrats," a recent report in the Journalist's Resource said.

Weathertrends360 CEO Bill Kirk also told USA TODAY recently that rain on Election Day can dissuade voters from going to the polls. He said several academic journals report that for every 1 inch of rain on Election Day, there's a 2.5% decrease in voter turnout, regardless of party affiliations.

Will it rain on Election Day?

Rain is in the forecast Tuesday for a sweeping region in the central U.S. that includes all of Louisiana, eastern Texas and western Arkansas, AccuWeather reported.

The heaviest downpours are forecast to fall in the area where northeast Oklahoma meets southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri, according to AccuWeather, bringing as much as 8-12 inches of rain.

The storms on Election Day will follow wet weather in several states in the central U.S. peaking Monday evening, including Oklahoma, Missouri and Iowa, forecasters said.

Election Day rain in Wisconsin, Michigan

Wisconsin and Michigan are expecting rain on voting day. They are two of seven swing states with tight polling between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said rain in Wisconsin is expected mostly in the morning and will dry out later in the day, but Michigan could see rain at any time during the day.

In addition, voters in northern Iowa and southeastern Minnesota will have a better shot of staying dry if they head to the polls later in the day after early rain subsides, Pastelok said.

Oklahoma under flood watches

On Monday, nearly the entire state of Oklahoma was blanketed in flood watches, the National Weather Service said.

Rivers flooded Monday southeast of Oklahoma City, the weather service reported. On Monday afternoon and into the evening, "all modes of severe weather are possible" in eastern Oklahoma, including damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes, according to forecasters.

By Monday morning, 4 to 8 inches of rain had already fallen in northern Arkansas, where a flash flood watch was in place, the weather service said.

Contributing: Jeannine Santucci