FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|2024 Kentucky Derby weather: Churchill Downs forecast for Saturday's race

The FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center2024 Kentucky Derby is quickly approaching, rain or shine.

There's a good chance that it will rain at Churchill Downs on Saturday – 40% to be exact – but that won't dampen the spirits of thousands of patrons, who are expected to flock to the legendary racetrack in their snazziest fascinators and head-turning hats for the 150th edition of the "Run for the Roses."

The amount of rain will likely affect the track condition at Churchill Downs. The last time the Kentucky Derby's track was classified as muddy (wet with no standing water) or sloppy (saturated with standing water visible) was in 2019 when Country House won amid showers after Maximum Security was disqualified for interference.

The previous four years, however, have offered up a fast (dry, even) track at the Kentucky Derby.

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Here's everything you need to know about the forecast in Louisville, Kentucky:

When is the 2024 Kentucky Derby?

The 150th running of the Kentucky Derby, the longest continuously running sporting event in the U.S., is held annually on the first Saturday in May. This year, the Kentucky Derby falls on May 4.

What is the 2024 Kentucky Derby forecast for Saturday?

Saturday's forecast for Louisville calls for a high of 82 degrees with partly sunny skies, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to join the party, according to the National Weather Service. There's a 40% probability of precipitation, mainly between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. ET, but it should be all clear by post time set at 6:57 p.m.

Kentucky Derby weather records

What is the hottest Kentucky Derby? What about the coldest temperature in race history? The National Weather Service compiled weather records in Louisville for each race, based on the entire calendar day:

• Coldest temperature: 36° — May 4, 1940 and May 4, 1957
• Warmest temperature: 94° — May 2, 1959
• Wettest: 3.15 inches of rain May 5, 2018
• Frozen precipitation:  On May 6, 1989, sleet was observed from 1:01 p.m. to 1:05 p.m. local time
• Rain Days: 71 of 149 Derby days (48%) have experienced rain at some point during the day.